Currency Market News
VENSTAR MARKET OUTLOOK – March 11, 2010
North American Highlights | USD Outlook (CAD, AUD, EUR, CHF, JPY, GBP)
USA Data (USD): The US like many countries is in hopes that given enough time, the cumulative gains on the income statement can repair much of the balance sheet damage before any emergency measures would be needed. Budget decisions will have to be faced, including how to correct a deficit where non-defense discretionary spending only makes up a rough one-sixth of Federal expenditure, and conditional on continued recovery.
Canada Data (USD/CAD): Positive economic data continues. The CAD is also benefiting from sovereign fears elsewhere and Canada's solid sovereign metrics. CAD positives go beyond just sovereign risks. The BoC has finally started to sound a little more positive. In its latest policy statement it said that the level of economic activity in Canada was slightly higher than projected and that growth had been spurred by "vigorous domestic spending and further recovery in exports. Longer term, stretched valuations can be an issue, with USD/CAD's Purchasing Power Parity level 1.20 against a 1.0280 spot rate.
Europe Data (EUR/USD): A EUR/USD rate of 1.40, which is near the estimate of appropriate value based on current risk and rates, is now seen as the top of its near-term range. The 1.20s are likely when it becomes evident from central bank actions have delayed ECB tightening relative to the Fed.
UK Data (GBP/USD): GBP (Sterling / Pounds): The UK rating agencies will likely not allow it to be stretched beyond this year. The UK is the one country where almost every sector looks highly leveraged or overextended. Compared with the Greeks, where only the public sector looks negative, and only Ireland is comparable on these valuations.
Asia Data (USD/JPY , USD/SGD , USD/HKD): Japan GDP, Q4 (revised): Growth was nudged down from 1.1 to 0.9%. China CPI, Feb: February's data provided few surprises. CPI inflation of 2.7% was higher than consensus, but the underlying trend looks stable.
Australia and New Zealand Data (AUD/USD, USD/NZD): Australia employment, Feb: Employment was mostly unchanged, disappointing forecasts of a further rise. Low unemployment of 5.3% matched expectations. RBNZ interest rate decision: The RBNZ kept its forecast to start hiking around the middle of the year. It scaled back its forecast profile for short rates a little given wider bank margins, although it raised its inflation forecasts.
MARKET ALERT - March 4, 2010
BOE leaves rates unchanged: The Bank of England met and kept its interest rate unchanged at .50%, as expected.
ECB leaves rates unchanged: The European Central Bank met and kept its interest rate unchanged at 1.00%, as expected.
MARKET ALERT - March 2, 2010
RBA Raises rates .25%: The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its interest rate from 3.75% to 4.00%. It was the fourth increase in the past twelve months.
BOC leaves rates unchanged: The Bank of Canada met and kept its interest rate unchanged at .25%, as expected.
They also raised their view of the inflation risk upwards to "roughly balanced" which might indicate a rate increase in the coming months.
MARKET OUTLOOK – February 26, 2010
North American Highlights | USD Outlook (CAD, AUD, EUR, CHF, JPY, GBP)
USA Data (USD): Flight to safety to the USD over the past two weeks, however, before anticipating a complete collapse of the EUR, you have to note that the Budget positions in the UK, US and Japan are hardly better than Europe and the core European countries have better Budget position. The ECB is holding steady and has not conducted the same extensive asset purchases as other major economies, and as the EUR falls the export performance in Europe will likely improve. While the ECB looks further from hiking policy rates, Bernanke and colleagues have also emphasized low rates this week.
Canada Data (USD/CAD): With commodity prices retracing yesterday and the USD gaining on the backs of a flight to security, the 1.0600 mark was broken with many feeling there is another leg or two in this recovery.
Europe Data (EUR/USD): The EUR has tried to strengthen this week, but keeps getting pushed back by deteriorating news surrounding Greece. It is trading like the market is EUR short, which creates the risk that if anything breaks positively for Greece, there will likely be a rally. However, in all likely-hood it does not appear that either Greece or the EUR will catch a break any time soon.
UK Data (GBP/USD): GBP (Sterling / Pounds): After yesterday's weaker than expected business investment data, the upward revision to GDP was higher than expected and not anticipate. However, the details of the data give rise to significant concerns. The upward revisions were in large part from much stronger retail sector output. On the expenditure data, the large boost was from lagging inventories, therefore it appears that the foundations of the UK recovery continue to look troublesome.
Asia Data (USD/JPY , USD/SGD , USD/HKD): The USD/JPY dropped yesterday to 88.8, but with the weekend ahead, upward adjustments are likely and the early February low of 88.56 is likely to support.
Australia and New Zealand Data (AUD/USD, USD/NZD): Australia Capex survey, Q4: Investment surprised on the high side, up 5.5% in Q4. The investment outlook was significantly upgraded as the mining boom returns.
MARKET OUTLOOK – February 19, 2010
North American Highlights | USD Outlook (CAD, AUD, EUR, CHF, JPY, GBP)
USA Data (USD): Fed's decision to hike the discount rate. This is largely a signal to the markets as to monetary policy in the future. After a large and swift monetary easing, and with rates just above 0%, the next move is tightening, the issue now is proper timing. Many continue to believe that it will be a long time before the Fed hikes policy rates, however, this latest move by the Fed should be likely taken as a signal that the hawks in the Fed's are gaining.
Canada Data (USD/CAD): Retail sales have held up well so far, with the exception of November. Expectations are for a decent improvement in December. Sales are expected to rise 0.5% mom, with sales ex autos up 0.3%.
Europe Data (EUR/USD): PMIs out of Europe this morning. Manufacturing surging higher, while the services PMI for the Euro zone unexpectedly falls for a second month. The manufacturing sector is, globally, outperforming the services sector continues. Some say that this shows the manufacturing sector is in the the leader out of the recession and the service sector will be sure to follow. Others believe that the inventory cycle collapse is now being followed by a modest recovery.
UK Data (GBP/USD): GBP (Sterling / Pounds) Sales slumped 1.2% mom which was significantly below expectations, but there was a small upward revision to December from 0.3% to 0.5%. On the year, sales actually came in at a higher than expected at a 2.6% yoy pace, having moderated from a 2.9% clip previously. Monthly data raises fresh concerns about the strength of the economic recovery.
Asia Data (USD/JPY , USD/SGD , USD/HKD): Many believe that the USD/JPY has the best fit with rate spreads and that the charts are currently USD positive. Many continue to position for US economic out-performance.
Australia and New Zealand Data (AUD/USD, USD/NZD): AUD/USD The RBA Governor was upbeat, signaling more hikes in the future. Look for hikes to possibly resume in March, reaching 5% by year-end.
MARKET OUTLOOK – February 11, 2010
North American Highlights | USD Outlook (CAD, AUD, EUR, CHF, JPY, GBP)
USA Data (USD): Even a moderate US recovery is being seen so far the strongest of all the G4 economies. The Fed will likely lead the G4 central bank tightening by late H2. A EURUSD move down to 1.28 by year-end is possible, with the US's own fiscal policy the main factor longer-term.
Canada Data (USD/CAD): In this interest rate sensitive climate, the attention will continue to turn to those currencies that might be next to increase their policy rate. In the G10, this is likely the CAD.
Europe Data (EUR/USD): Problems with the EUR can be covered up with bail-outs only in the short-term, however, concerns remain about failed long-term EU structural fundamentals are likely to continue to pull down EUR/USD, encouraging selling near 1.40 and above.
UK Data (GBP/USD): GBP (Sterling / Pounds) With the BoE recent Inflation Report coming in as dovish as it was, most market experts have discounted the report and are waiting for the next slew of inflation and cpi data to be released.
Asia Data (USD/JPY , USD/SGD , USD/HKD): USD/JPY short-term suggests 'fair value' is near or around the 97.00 JPY level. JPY will likely be the financing/carry currency of choice when the Fed considers raising policy rates likely by year-end.
Australia and New Zealand Data (AUD/USD, USD/NZD): AUD/USD has been aided by a much better than expected Australian employment report that makes a RBA rate hike next month almost a certainty, polled by most experts.
MARKET ALERT - February 4, 2010
BOE leaves rates unchanged: The Bank of England met today and kept its rate unchanged at .50%
The BOE also stated that it was putting its program of quantitative easing on hold
ECB leaves rates unchanged: The European Central Bank kept its interest rate unchanged at 1.0% today, as expected.
The EUR fell against most currencies with increasing concerns about debt problems in Greece, Portugal, and Spain.
MARKET OUTLOOK – February 02, 2010
North American Highlights | USD Outlook (CAD, AUD, EUR, CHF, JPY, GBP)
USA Data (USD): The Treasury market has continued to out-perform given the positive data that came out last week. Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls report will be one to watch; as many are looking for a reasonable 60k increase in jobs for January. The USD index breach of the 200-day moving average continues to dominate.
Canada Data (USD/CAD): Canada: USD/CAD: The Bank of Canada left policy rates at 0.25% and reiterated that current policy rates wouldn't be raised in H1:10.
Europe Data (EUR/USD): Euro area manufacturing PMI, Jan was revised up to 52.4 from the flash estimate of 52. The reading is the highest in 2 years. The final manufacturing new orders were also revised up to 53.8 from the flash reading of 53.2. Relative CPI performance and PPP points to 1.20, while long-term valuation model’s has 1.30. It appears there is plenty of downside if Greece worries continue to escalate, with an extreme change in sentiment required for this trend to reverse in the short term. Wednesday, the EC releases its official recommendation on the Greece’s fiscal outlook. The ECB is unlikely to change its stance on bailing out Greece at Thursday's post policy meeting press conference. .
UK Data (GBP/USD): GBP (Sterling / Pounds) has moved down into the 1.50s, however, many feel there is perhaps another 5% in this move. The MPC will likely stop rate cuts this Thursday, but this is largely expected. Many expect a rather dovish accompanying statement. UK newspaper opinion polls show both political parties are focused on the need to correct the fiscal deficit, however increased uncertainty could dominate as a GBP negative.
Asia Data (USD/JPY , USD/SGD , USD/HKD): China PMI, Jan continued to point to solid growth, ranging between 56 and 57, although this was slightly under market expectations. Korea exports, Jan printed growth of 47% yoy, which fell short of expectations.
Australia and New Zealand Data (AUD/USD, USD/NZD): RBA cash rate decision shocked by keeping rates on hold, warning that policy "will need to be adjusted further". A hike was expected by many today, but expect the possibility of more to come given inflation rising and unemployment is now falling.
MARKET ALERT - February 2, 2010
RBA keeps rates unchanged: The Reserve Bank of Australia surprised the markets today by keeping their interest rate unchanged at 3.75%.
The markets had been expecting a 25 bp hike, and the unexpected pause pummeled the Australian dollar to a 6-week low.
MARKET ALERT - January 27, 2010
U.S. Fed leaves rates unchanged: The FOMC met today and kept its interest rate unchanged at a range of 0-.25%, as expected and indicated they would hold rates there for an “extended period” to nurture the economic recovery and lower unemployment.
MARKET OUTLOOK - January 19, 2010
North American Highlights | USD Outlook (CAD, AUD, EUR, CHF, JPY, GBP)
USA Data (USD): M&A: Kraft (US) raised its offer 9% to about GBP12bn for Cadbury (UK). 840 pence per share, including 500 pence cash. UK press reports the Cadbury board will accept the bid.
Canada Data (USD/CAD): Canada: USD/CAD: The statement from the Bank of Canada disappointed many people that look for monetary policy in Canada to be tightened earlier than the USA. The BoC reiterated that current policy rates wouldn't be raised in Q1 2010. They did hint that global growth outlook was 'somewhat stronger' than projected in the October Monetary Policy Report. The 'persistent strength' of the CAD and the low level of US demand were seen as the most significant drains on economic activity. The reference to the CAD was stronger than in the December statement when it was thought that the CAD 'could' act as a drag on growth. Canadian exports (relative to US demand) have held strong and natural gas prices have been rising.
Europe Data (EUR/USD): German ZEW, Jan: expectations index declined to 47.2 from 50.4 in Dec, weaker than market expectations of 50. This is the fourth consecutive monthly decline, increasingly suggesting expectations have peaked for now. As expected, the current conditions index continues to trend modestly higher, to -56.6 from -60.6 in Dec.
Eurogroup head Juncker on Greece: some supportive words saying that "the measures were one step in the right direction. We believe the Greek government will do what is necessary and we have to support them in their efforts."
UK Data (GBP/USD): UK CPI, Dec: Prices rising 2.9% yoy against an expected 2.6% and 1.9% in Nov. The overshoot was far more dramatic on the core data which shot up to 2.8% from 1.9% in Nov.
Asia Data (USD/JPY , USD/SGD , USD/HKD): China: The PBoC guided the one-year bill rate higher by 8bp to 1.9264% for a second week in a row.
MARKET OUTLOOK - January 05, 2010
North American Highlights | USD Outlook (CAD, AUD, EUR, CHF, JPY, GBP)
USA Data (USD): The New Year is starting with the NFP on Friday and Manufacturing ISM. The former is important as we appear to be around the neutral position in NFP, with economists, according to Bloomberg, split as to whether we get a positive number or not. The question of whether this recovery has self-sustaining legs once stimuli and free money are removed is the central issue.
Since 17th December (when volumes started to disappear across all markets), equities have rallied 2-3% and FX has seen EUR/USD, EUR/GBP and GBP/USD all virtually unchanged (with some yen weakness) but the real interest comes from rates and credit. In government bonds, US 2y and 10y yields are around 40bp higher, German/UK yields 30bp higher, with a 6% target for 10y US yields eventually.
US manufacturing ISM: Look for the ISM headline measure to have rebounded in December, rising to 55.
The USD's sensitivity to this week's data will depend on whether the market believes a very gradual rise in Fed rates in 2010. EUR/USD losses do have some momentum. The 1.4220 range lows, and beyond this the 38.2% fib of the March/December up-trend will be an early focus. EUR/GBP level to watch is 0.8830. Two stories stand out e - UK fiscal concerns and Pimco cutting US, UK bonds as borrowing increased.
Canada Data (USD/CAD): Canada: USD/CAD: USD/CAD's break of 1.0450 as this level provided support during Nov\Dec. A clear break would open the door to a test of parity during January.
Europe Data (EUR/USD): Euro area manufacturing PMI, Dec: Final reading of the PMI was unchanged from the flash estimate of 51.6, as expected.
Sweden PMI, Dec: PMI rose to 58.2 from 56.0 in November, well above expectations. Riksbank rate decision minutes: The board was split over the decision to keep the repo rate at 0.25% and to the keep the repo rate path unchanged in December. Svensson wanted to cut the repo rate to zero and also wanted a lower repo rate path. Nyberg and Wickman-Parak felt that the more positive outlook for growth made it "necessary to raise the interest rate sooner than" autumn 2010.
Swiss PMI, Dec: PMI fell to 54.6 from 56.9, well below expectations. In the breakdown, orders slumped to 56.0 from 66.5 but output continued to improve rising to 59.6 from 59.4.
UK Data (GBP/USD): UK manufacturing PMI, Dec: PMI posted a larger than expected increase, up to 54.1 from 51.8 in November. Driven by a jump in new orders ( 57.4 from 53.3, a 29-month high). UK Chancellor Darling: Tightening the fiscal reins too hastily could harm the economy and derail the recovery. UK lending to individuals, Nov: New mortgage approvals rose to a higher than expected 60.5k from 57.7k. Cash-terms net mortgage lending rose to £1.5bn from an upwardly revised £1.1bn in Oct, above forecasts. Net unsecured lending was again negative coming in at -£0.4bn. UK M4 & M4 lending data, Nov: Lending data was noticeably firmer. On the ex-intermediate OFCs basis (the MPC's preferred measures), M4 rebounded by 0.9% m/m in Nov after hefty falls in Oct (-0.6%) and Nov (-0.9%). M4 lending up 1.1% m/m in Nov after a 0.6% fall in Oct.
Asia Outlook (USD/JPY, USD/SGD, USD/HKD): Singapore GDP, Q4: Rose 3.5%y/y in Q4, less than the 3.8% median market expectation. Japan: Performance of the JGB was mixed over the past 10 Januaries, from 2000 to 2009. There were five Januaries that 10yr yields moved up (January close vs December close); there were also five Januaries that yields dropped. Expectation for 10yr yields with little changes in January compared to December close.
MARKET ALERT - December 16, 2009
U.S. Fed leaves rates unchanged: The Federal Reserve concluded its meeting this afternoon and kept the federal funds rate unchanged at .125%, as expected. They noted that "economic activity has continued to pick up and that the deterioration in the labor market is abating."
MARKET OUTLOOK - December 16, 2009
North American Highlights | USD Outlook (CAD, AUD, EUR, CHF, JPY, GBP)
USA Data (USD): Smaller than expected 0.034% increase in core CPI. The rebound in starts and the C/A headline were both as expected.
Breakdown of the data shows few surprises in CPI. Apparel was soft again and vehicle prices were up solidly as the post clunkers impact continued. Medical care was also solid at +0.3. Despite this, core CPI was soft helped by very soft housing where owner’s equivalent rent was -0.1% and the key depressant Lodging away from home. The CPI data will reinforce the view that the Fed has plenty of leeway to focus on growth without any immediate inflation fears. Nonetheless, USD has not moved much on the data mainly due to: 1) caution before the FOMC meeting; 2) a more positive USD rally already supported.
Europe Data (EUR/USD): One key to the next move remaining whether EURUSD will hold the Oct low at 1.4480. A breach of this level would be taken as a signal of renewed downside momentum. Any shift on the FOMC 'extended period' language would be key in taking out this level near-term of 1.4480.
Greece remains a banking scare - although December moves can be exacerbated, sovereign balance sheets will remain in focus for 2010. The US and the UK are countries where many worry, but worries are increasing in Europe as well, especially outside of the core countries.
UK Data (GBP/USD): UK Labor market conditions continue to show some improvement, but underlying fundamentals remain significantly more fragile than the headline employment data shows. The increase in total employment is entirely the result of higher part-time and self-employment. The number of full-time employees - an important gauge of labor market conditions - continues to show significant layoffs (85k in the latest 3 months). This represents an improvement relative to the spring and summer (when jobs losses of 200k+ were the norm) but it is some way from 'real' job creation. A modest pick-up in average working hours shows some improvement in overall labor market conditions.
Japan Outlook (USD/JPY): There exists a possibility of USD/JPY to rise further; although still in a down trend, many speculators are probably still holding onto JPY longs. A break above the recent high of 90.77, should start to shift sentiment more clearly against JPY. There is strong resistance around 92. Support on the downside near 88.0 and 87.5. JPY.
MARKET ALERT - December 10, 2009
BOE leaves rate unchanged: The Bank of England met and kept its interest rate unchanged at .50%, as expected.
MARKET OUTLOOK - December 9, 2009
North American & European Outlook
EUR/USD: The market is asking questions about whether USD tides have turned since the USA employment report. Although a pause in the USD's weakness has been under way, a complete turnaround is not likely this far ahead of Fed tightening.
There are a number of factors supporting the USD: EUR/USD trend line was broken from the March low when risk started to move upwards. The 1-month trailing EURUSD correlation with its risk reversal shows signs of EURUSD consolidation, if not a complete turn. Many EUR pairs look weak. Greece's financial crisis is obviously EUR-negative, showing once again that the EUR has many countries affecting its value, that can affect the currency most adversely, for example Germany maybe performing, but Greece can bring the EUR down on its own.
There are a number of fundamental factors as well against USD strength, dovish comments by Bernanke and Dudley point in regards to the Fed’s easy policy to promote a sustainable recovery, putting the first tightening move no sooner than late summer and possibly substantially later.
USA: Since the employment data are in line with a mild recovery, the USD risks of another downturn leading to a fiscal shock is lessened. The employment data should reduce the probability, including the risk of a USD collapse. All in all there are strong signs of a period of consolidation in EUR/USD, however by early next year the market should be buying USD.
The US trade deficit was significantly smaller than expected, while the initial claims were slightly higher than expected. The majority of the trade surprise was in the petroleum balance. Additionally, exports appear strong, with a moderate up-tick in global trade. There were no shocks in the bilateral trade balances, with the China imbalance remaining overly concerning.
MARKET ALERT - December 8, 2009
BOC leaves rate unchanged: The Bank of Canada met and kept the interest rate unchanged at .25%, as expected.
The BOC commented that it will continue to keep the interest rate low, at least through June of 2010.
MARKET ALERT - December 3, 2009
ECB leaves rate unchanged: The European Central Bank met and kept its interest rate unchanged at 1.0%, as expected.
ECB President Jean Claude Trichet commented that they will be ending some emergency funding measures this month.
MARKET ALERT - December 1, 2009
RBA raises rates: The Reserve Bank of Australia increased its interest rate from 3.50% to 3.75%, as expected.
This is the third consecutive month where RBA has increased interest rate. AUD is up on the news.
MARKET OUTLOOK - December 1, 2009
November 2009 Recap | USD Outlook (CAD, AUD, EUR, CHF, JPY, GBP, NZD)
Fresh highs for the year were made in riskier/commodity currencies, equity markets and commodities, notably gold. Due to the news of financial problems in Dubai, moves in financial markets were sharp. A severe risk sell off was seen towards the end of the month as worries over a default in the Middle East surfaced which left the JPY as the sole FX outperformer. This prompted tougher talk from Japanese officials on currency strength.
USD/CHF: CHF also performed well, forcing the SNB to intervene to stem the currency's strength.
USD / USA: The weak USD trend continued, as Fed officials continued to issue statements on keeping monetary policy accommodative for the foreseeable future. In the bond market, US yields moved lower over the month, hitting 3.15% towards month-end. US September employment report disappointed as payrolls pulled back significantly. The 263k fall was 100k worse than expected. The unemployment rate rose to 10.2% from 9.8%. The October US employment report was as disappointing as the jobs situation after improving through the summer. Payrolls fell 190k but upward revisions to August and September were made.
GBP: Bank of England monetary policy remained uncertain. Policy rates were left at 0.5%. The Minutes revealed a three-way split. Some MPC members suggested that the November extension may be the final one and this could bring the exit. There was also talk of lowering the bank deposit rate in the future. The November Inflation Report was much more dovish than expected, with inflation still under wraps. The view that UK policy rates will be lower for longer was tightened and further rate cuts couldn't be ruled out. As a result, GBP was one of the worst performers.
AUD: The Reserve Bank of Australia tightened its policy rate by 25bp to 3.50%. The RBA minutes showed that the board was open to a pause in December but there was evidence of further recovery abroad keeping the possibility open for a December hike.
EUR / Euro: The ECB left rates on hold at 1% as expected. EUR maintained its trading range of 1.47-1.51 throughout November.
USD/NZD: Worries over the health of the New Zealand economy, with the Treasury calling for significant tax reform/tighter fiscal policy to allow the RBNZ to target lower interest rates and to weaken NZD. This left NZD as the worst performer.
MARKET OUTLOOK - November 12, 2009
North American Highlights | USD Outlook (CAD, AUD, EUR, CHF, JPY, GBP)
The price of gold continues to track higher than other commodity prices and faster than the rate of appreciation of other currencies against the USD over the last two weeks.
The market may not be buying those particular currencies that have had very strong runs and are meeting greater resistance from Government/central bankers, but investors continue to like the USD and are running with arms outstretched towards gold. This sentiment is helping give stability to most currencies, commodities and US asset prices suggests the general concern is still towards inflation for those assets priced in USD.
GBP has slipped in response to the BoE inflation report. In regards to the exchange rate, the BoE were hinting for a weaker GBP saying, "this process of balance sheet adjustment implies the need for the UK economy to rebalance away from private and public consumption towards higher net exports [and] the fall in the exchange rate over the past two years will help to smooth that process".
In the US, Geithner said that he "believes deeply" in a strong dollar, whereas the Fed's Fisher said that the dollar's fall is an orderly reversal of its rise after the Lehman crisis.
USA: US Treasury Secretary Geithner continued by saying “The challenge "right now" is to restore growth and most countries see the need for more government support”. He singled out Asia as the region to lead the global recovery. Also, reiterated that it's very important to have a strong USD.
Asia: Japan Ministry of Finance official Furumoto said “Japanese domestic demand is in a severe condition, the jobless rate is a pressing issue and the corporate earnings outlook for 2009/10 is 'gloomy'”.
Europe: Euro area industrial production, Sept: IP rose a smaller than expected 0.3% mom to -12.9% yoy, slightly weaker than expected. However, the August prints were revised up to 1.2% mom and -15.1% yoy.
Sweden CPI, Oct: Inflation was higher than expected, rising 0.3% mom to -1.5% yoy, up from -1.6 % yoy in September. Underlying CPI rose 0.3% mom, pushing the annual rate to 1.9%, up from 1.4% yoy. Despite the data exceeding consensus forecasts, this is the 7th consecutive month of deflation
Swiss ZEW survey, Nov: Expectations balance fell back to 56.4 after the strong jump to 65.0 seen in October.
MARKET ALERT - November 4, 2009
U.S. Fed Leaves Rates Unchanged: The Federal Reserve concluded its two-day meeting this afternoon and kept the federal funds rate unchanged at .125%, as expected.
USD has been down against most currencies since the announcement and following comments. They noted that the economy has continued to pick up, but they anticipate that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the fed funds rate for an extended period.
MARKET ALERT - November 3, 2009
RBA Raises Rates Again: The Reserve Bank of Australia increased its interest rate from 3.25% to 3.50% today, which was expected.
There are some expectations that rates may rise to 4.25% in the next six months.
MARKET ALERT - October 20, 2009
BOC leaves rates unchanged: The Bank of Canada met and kept its interest rate unchanged at .25%, as expected.
Comments indicate they expect rates to remain the same until at least June of 2010.
MARKET ALERT - October 14, 2009
BOJ leaves rates unchanged: The Bank of Japan met and kept its interest rate unchanged at .1%, as expected.
MARKET ALERT - October 8, 2009
BOE and ECB leave rates unchanged: The Bank of England and the European Central Bank both met and kept their interest rates unchanged, as expected.
MARKET ALERT - October 6, 2009
RBA raises interest rates: The Reserve Bank of Australia surprised the markets today and raised its interest rate from 3.00% to 3.25%. They became the first G-20 member to raise rates since the global crisis.
The Australian economy is showing signs of inflation, where most other major economies are still showing signs of deflation.
