VENSTAR MARKET OUTLOOK – February 26, 2010

North American Highlights | USD Outlook (CAD, AUD, EUR, CHF, JPY, GBP)

USA Data (USD): Flight to safety to the USD over the past two weeks, however, before anticipating a complete collapse of the EUR, you have to note that the Budget positions in the UK, US and Japan are hardly better than Europe and the core European countries have better Budget position. The ECB is holding steady and has not conducted the same extensive asset purchases as other major economies, and as the EUR falls the export performance in Europe will likely improve. While the ECB looks further from hiking policy rates, Bernanke and colleagues have also emphasized low rates this week.

Canada Data (USD/CAD): With commodity prices retracing yesterday and the USD gaining on the backs of a flight to security, the 1.0600 mark was broken with many feeling there is another leg or two in this recovery.

Europe Data (EUR/USD): The EUR has tried to strengthen this week, but keeps getting pushed back by deteriorating news surrounding Greece. It is trading like the market is EUR short, which creates the risk that if anything breaks positively for Greece, there will likely be a rally. However, in all likely-hood it does not appear that either Greece or the EUR will catch a break any time soon.

UK Data (GBP/USD): GBP (Sterling / Pounds): After yesterday's weaker than expected business investment data, the upward revision to GDP was higher than expected and not anticipate. However, the details of the data give rise to significant concerns. The upward revisions were in large part from much stronger retail sector output. On the expenditure data, the large boost was from lagging inventories, therefore it appears that the foundations of the UK recovery continue to look troublesome.

Asia Data (USD/JPY , USD/SGD , USD/HKD): The USD/JPY dropped yesterday to 88.8, but with the weekend ahead, upward adjustments are likely and the early February low of 88.56 is likely to support.

Australia and New Zealand Data (AUD/USD, USD/NZD): Australia Capex survey, Q4: Investment surprised on the high side, up 5.5% in Q4. The investment outlook was significantly upgraded as the mining boom returns.

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